Ley evolutiva de la relación entre el lago Dongting y las tres desembocaduras del río Jingjiang en los últimos 60 años
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2024-05-08Keywords:
red neuronal de propagación trasera, escorrentía y variación de sedimentos, tres salidas de Jingjiang, lago Dongting, embalse de las Tres GargantasAbstract
El embalse de las Tres Gargantas ha comenzado a desempeñar un papel integral en la generación de energía, el control de inundaciones, el transporte marítimo y otros aspectos desde el 1° de junio de 2003. Utilizando datos de escorrentía y transporte de sedimentos de series temporales largas, la evolución de la relación del lago Dongting y las tres desembocaduras del río Jingjiang después de la operación de las Tres Gargantas, el proyecto se analizó utilizando redes neuronales de propagación posterior, prueba de tendencia de Mann-Kendall y curvas acumulativas dobles. Los resultados muestran lo siguiente: 1) a escala interanual e interdecadal, la disminución de la escorrentía del lago Dongting se debe principalmente a la fuerte disminución de la escorrentía de las tres desembocaduras; hasta cierto punto, la sedimentación del lago Dongting se alivió debido a la reducción del transporte de sedimentos procedentes de las tres desembocaduras; 2) al analizar la consistencia de la escorrentía y el transporte de sedimentos dentro y fuera del lago Dongting, se encontró que la influencia de la ingeniería hidráulica en el río Yangtze en la escorrentía, y el sedimento que entra y sale del lago Dongting es asincrónico; la tasa de descomposición del sedimento en el lago es mucho mayor que la tasa de descomposición del sedimento fuera del lago; 3) a partir del cambio de tendencia de los días secos de las tres desembocaduras, éstas tienden a estar sedimentadas, y los ríos Ouchi y Hudu disminuyen gradualmente; 4) desde la línea de proceso de sedimentación del lago Dongting, la sedimentación acumulada del lago Dongting desde 2003 hasta 2018 fue de -2 829 × 104 t, y el lago Dongting cambió de estado de sedimentación a estado de erosión; 5) se utilizó un modelo de red neuronal de propagación trasera para simular la escorrentía y el transporte de sedimentos del lago Dongting, y los resultados muestran que la precisión de la simulación satisfizo las necesidades de predicción de la escorrentía y el transporte de sedimentos del lago Dongting.
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