Estudio de teleconexión entre variables hidrológicas y climatológicas en una cuenca de cabecera del río Maipo para la aplicación de modelos de pronóstico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2025-04-04Keywords:
teleconexión climática, variables hidrometeorológicas, pronóstico de caudal estacional, modelos de regresión lineal múltipleAbstract
En este estudio se realiza un análisis de teleconexión del caudal estacional durante la temporada seca (primavera y verano) de la cuenca del río Olivares, una cuenca de cabecera del río Maipo, con índices climáticos tradicionales (Oscilación Antártica, Niño1+2 y Niño3.4), nuevos índices obtenidos de campos espaciales de anomalías de temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM) y variables hidrometeorológicas in situ de la temporada anterior con el fin de identificar potenciales predictores para la implementación de modelos de pronóstico de caudales estacionales en la zona de estudio. Para ilustrar el potencial de los predictores identificados, se ajusta modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para el pronóstico de caudal estacional para periodos de previsión de 0 y 3 meses. Los pronósticos se validan utilizando el enfoque de validación cruzada “leave-1-year-out cross-validation” (LOOCV) y métricas estadísticas tales como el coeficiente de correlación de Pearson (R), sesgo porcentual (BIAS), coeficiente de eficiencia de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), y continuous rank probability skill score (CRPSS). Los resultados muestran un buen desempeño del modelo de pronóstico para la validación cruzada con valores de R y NSE que oscilan entre 0.55 y 0.95, y entre 0.28 y 0.88 para un tiempo de pronóstico de 0 y 3 meses durante la temporada seca. El modelo implementado brinda una buena perspectiva para la implementación de modelos probabilísticos de pronóstico de caudales estacionales, lo que puede resultar en una herramienta útil para el desarrollo de estrategias sólidas de gestión del recurso hídrico durante el periodo de escasez hídrica en la zona de estudio.
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