Climate variability in technified temporary districts in Northern, Southeastern, and Southern Mexico

Abstract

Climatic variability was analyzed in technified rainfed districts (distritos de temporal tecnificado, DTT) located in Chiapas, Tamaulipas, and Yucatán, Mexico, by evaluating trends in monthly accumulated precipitation and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. These regions were selected due to Mexico’s climatic diversity, which allows the inclusion of representative climatic scenarios. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to data from 44 climate stations, including 17 stations from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and 27 stations from National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INIFAP), considering 36 years (1980-2015) for SMN stations and 41 years (1980-2020) for INIFAP stations. The results show significant climatic variations across the DTTs located in northern, southeastern, and southern Mexico. A generalized increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures was identified, with higher rates observed from June to September, a pattern consistent with climate change trends reported in the literature. These trends suggest potential alterations in crop growth cycles, associated with increased water demand and thermal stress, which could affect agricultural productivity. The analysis of monthly accumulated precipitation indicates the presence of significant interannual variability. During key planting months, such as May, a tendency toward decreasing precipitation was detected at several stations, whereas increases were observed in October. These changes could influence water availability for rainfed crops and, consequently, their productivity.