Sowing season with greater probability of success in the eastern part of Aguascalientes, Mexico.

Abstract

In the state of Aguascalientes, considerable extensions of cultivated areas are regularly damaged due to precipitation variability. Therefore, the objectives of this work were to propose a procedure for defining the sowing season for beans and corn crop with a greater probability of success based on two agroclimatic indexes (I e I*) and to define the agroclimatic potential of the eastern part of Aguascalientes. The information used consisted of daily climatological data on precipitation and evaporation, as well as edaphic data of the main soils and phenological data of two crops. Values for two agroclimatic indexes were generated with the serial water balance (year to year), which was performed for each crop, for six sowing dates, for each type of soil, and for each of the ten climatological stations selected. This yielded six series for each index. A probabilistic analysis was applied to each series and its value was estimated at 80% higher probability. With I e I* indexes for the indicated probability value, the sowing season with greater probability of success was determined for both crops in the study region. The values of the two indexes show that the agroclimatic potential of the region for rainfed agricultural production is limited.