Hydrological drought risk assessment in urban areas of Mexico: Guadalajara and Monterrey

Abstract

Despite its importance, there is relatively little research focused on drought risk in cities. Therefore, the present work aims to propose a methodology for the evaluation of hydrological drought risk in urban areas of Mexico and their respective drinking water, sewerage and sanitation operating organizations (OOAPAS, by its Spanish acronym). This methodology was applied in two of the most important urban areas of the country: The Monterrey hydropolitan area (AHM), and the Guadalajara metropolitan area (AMG). The study period was 2008-2018. For the risk assessment, the contextual approach was adopted, which defines this concept based on the hazard, exposure and vulnerability of the analyzed system. To calculate the hazard, the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI-12) was used, and socioeconomic, environmental, and institutional management indicators were used to assess vulnerability and exposure. The results indicate that the study areas are very sensitive to hydrological droughts, that is, to the deficit of surface runoff that enters their sources of water supply. The vulnerability index trend in these areas is downward. Regarding the drought exposure and risk index, the trend is to increase in both areas. The results obtained showed that the proposed methodology is feasible and useful in assessing of drought risk in the study areas, and can be applied in other urban areas of the country.