Methodological projection of droughts in Bravo-Conchos, Mexico, using combined techniques
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2026-05-06Palabras clave:
drought, arid zones, water resources management, water balance, Svanidze method, Falkenmark index, CMIP5 models, water supply, river basins, mathematical models, climate change, bilateral relations, transboundary waters, MexicoResumen
Water scarcity is a critical issue exacerbated by population growth, climate change, and increasing water demand. The Bravo-Conchos hydrological region, located along the U.S.-Mexico border, faces severe drought conditions that threaten water availability and economic stability. This research applied a hybrid approach, combining the Svanidze method for synthetic data generation with traditional drought analysis to project future drought scenarios. The methodology includes assessing water stress using the Falkenmark Index, analyzing climate projections with CMIP5 models, and characterizing multiyear droughts. Results indicate a projected decrease in precipitation and rising temperatures, intensifying drought frequency and severity. The region should adapt to an average precipitation of approximately 243.35 mm, which is 78.82 % of the historical mean precipitation, considering future droughts and climate fluctuations. Findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management policies, cross-border cooperation, and infrastructure improvements to mitigate climate change impacts. This research also provides accessible and cost-effective tools for decision-making, supporting public policies and sustainable water resource management in data-scarce regions.
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